Dorking Wandering
The Dorking Wanderers FC Fans Forum
Just over a month left in the 25/26 season, I thought it would be interesting to see our run-in and how it compares to the other teams who you can consider in the title race. I would say the title race goes down to Chelmsford in 10th (considering their 2 games in hand) which is interesting when comparing to the same stage last year.
Last season was considered a wide open title race with 6 teams capable of winning the league going in to the last game of the season. At this point last year, after 38 games, eventual champions Truro had 73 points, which is 1 point less than what we are currently on (74). The team in 10th place last season at this point (Farnborough) had 53 points which is considerably less than Chelmsford this season who currently have 60 points having played 2 games fewer.
In general, the gap from top to bottom is much narrower than last season. Bottom team Eastbourne currently have 31 points, just 6 points off safety. While last year, Aveley had 24 points at this point and were 14 points off safety.
Truro went on to finish on 89 points, winning on goal difference from Torquay. This means Truro picked up 16 points from their last 8 games, while runners-up Torquay picked up 21 points in that period.
As a result, I would expect the required final points to be slightly less than last year so we may only need 12-14 points from here to get the job done.
Looking at the remaining games, we have the second hardest run-in on paper, looking at purely average position of the fixtures:
| Club | Pts | Avg Pos | ||||||||||
| Dorking | 74 | Maidenhead (A) | Torquay (A) | Hemel (H) | Horsham (A) | Worthing (H) | Totton (A) | Bath (H) | Weston (A) | 9.8 | ||
| Hornchurch | 66 | Hemel (H) | Chesham (A) | Farnborough (A) | Dagenham (H) | Maidstone (A) | Ebbsfleet (H) | Chelmsford (H) | Chippenham (A) | Maidenhead (H) | 11 | |
| Worthing | 65 | Totton (A) | Weston (A) | Enfield (A) | Eastbourne (H) | Dorking (A) | Dagenham (H) | Maidstone (A) | Ebbsfleet (H) | 11.7 | ||
| Ebbsfleet | 65 | Weston (H) | Slough (H) | Tonbridge (A) | Dover (H) | Hornchurch (A) | Hampton (H) | Worthing (A) | 11.4 | |||
| Torquay | 64 | Dagenham (A) | Dorking (H) | Horsham (H) | Weston (A) | Bath (H) | Slough (A) | Hemel (H) | Tonbridge (A) | 10.5 | ||
| Hemel | 64 | Hornchurch (A) | Bath (A) | Dorking (A) | Weston (A) | Chesham (H) | Enfield (A) | Eastbourne (H) | Torquay (A) | Salisbury (H) | 12.8 | |
| Maidenhead | 62 | Dorking (H) | Weston (H) | Bath (H) | Slough (A) | Hampton (H) | Chelmsford (A) | Dover (H) | Hornchurch (A) | 11.8 | ||
| Maidstone | 61 | Chesham (A) | Totton (H) | Dover (A) | Hornchurch (H) | Horsham (A) | Worthing (H) | Bath (A) | 11.7 | |||
| Weston | 60 | Ebbsfleet (A) | Worthing (H) | Maidenhead (A) | Hemel (H) | Torquay (H) | Salisbury (A) | Enfield (H) | Horsham (H) | Dagenham (A) | Dorking (H) | 9.4 |
| Chelmsford | 60 | Dover (H) | Farnborough (A) | Chippenham (A) | Totton (H) | Enfield (H) | Dagenham (A) | Maidenhead (H) | Hornchurch (A) | Chesham (A) | Eastbourne (H) | 16.6 |
It's actually surprising how many of our rivals have to play eachother in the next 8-9 games with only Weston having a touger run of games than ourselves.
Chelmsford have by far the easiest run-in in terms of league position as they only have to play 3 of their rivals. That being said, teams fighting relegation can often be tougher at this time of year and fixture congestion may also be tough for them to handle.
Some interesting games on the last day of the season as well with our visit to Weston, Worthing hosting Ebbsfleet and Maidenhead travelling to Hornchurch. Hopefully we have it wrapped up by then!
The squad needs huge surgery in the summer, so if we do go up we'd be better equipped than we are now.
I think if we have just 2 home play off games for promotion it could be just about do-able, but the way it's going 2nd is a going to be a big effort.
Would be a tough job to have to go to Torquay or Hornchurch as the away team in a play off for example
"Why would I leave to join a League Two club? We're going there anyway!" - Marc White
Our squad is not good enough, too reliant on loan players and geriatrics
Our squad is plenty good enough, bar perhaps the striker department with only Alfie and Lawrence realistic forwards next season if JP can't do one more - it's the injuries that need to be addressed. And the average age is well down on past seasons too, so it's hardly geriatric.
Our squad is not good enough, too reliant on loan players and geriatrics
Our squad is plenty good enough, bar perhaps the striker department with only Alfie and Lawrence realistic forwards next season if JP can't do one more - it's the injuries that need to be addressed. And the average age is well down on past seasons too, so it's hardly geriatric.
Apart from the strikers, where we probably need two more, the defence is a big worry. Craig will probably retire, leaving us one CB. I think we need at least 3 defenders to cover every position in back 3. Would probably add another winger or two to cover for injuries too
Looking at Hornchurch's last 3 games they could possibly win all 3, but we will have to hope they don't and we win both ours. Coming 2nd is a big ask and we may have to settle for 3rd and hope Hornchurch lose their playoff game. If we finish below 3rd, it will be very hard. We really don't want that extra game, with our injuries.
I notice when Tom started this thread he mentioned 12-14 points from the last 8 games might be enough. It looks like he may be right, but the problem is we have only got 4 points from the last 6. As Marc said, our worst run of form of the season has come at the worst time. Can anyone remember the last time we lost 3 in a row. Was it in the NL?
@crawleysth March 2024 in the NL. We lost away at Altrincham, Maidenhead and Southend in a row.
6 teams can still win the league going in to the last couple of weeks of the season - Worthing, Dorking, Torquay, Hornchurch, Hemel and Weston. It would take a miracle for Hemel to win the league though, due to their vastly inferior goal difference to Worthing. Would also require a lot of things to go right for Weston to win as well.
Only Worthing are guaranteed playoffs at this stage but a win for us this weekend would secure them for us as well.
Chippenham were relegated on Saturday and Bath City could join them if they fail to win at Totton tomorrow night.
Louie Annesley fractured ankle.
Of course it is 🙁
"Why would I leave to join a League Two club? We're going there anyway!" - Marc White
Marc said after the Totton game they were aiming for 2nd as a minimum, but I think the title is beyond us now, and Worthing are strong favourites. We do need to aim for 2nd though, although I fear it may be 3rd or even 4th or 5th with our injuries at both ends of the pitch. Would help if Bath are relegated on Tuesday, as may give us an easier game.
Even if Bath win tomorrow night, they would still need to win the remaining two games (Dorking and Maidstone) and hope either Salisbury or Dover lose both while also overturning an 11 or 13 goal deficit. Feels unlikely to say the least but yes, it would be nice if their heads were down for Saturday.
Only Dover, Slough and Eastbourne are in worse form than us (even Bath are in better form) so it will a miracle now if we win the playoffs, but you can always hope!
I wonder how far away Dan Gallagher is from a return as that could ease our CB issues a bit? A meniscus tear is usually anywhere between 6-12 weeks and he did his in mid-Feb so we could maybe see him for playoffs depending on how bad it was.
@calvertskans He was on crutches a couple of weeks ago at Meadowbank, but hopefully he could figure maybe if required
@gary-munnery He was walking around on the pitch before Horsham so might not be that far away. I think we could see Muitt back around the playoffs as well as he was running on the pitch before Worthing and Totton.
Didn't realise that Bath actually have two games this week. They obviously have Totton away in the league tonight but they also have a Somerset cup semi-final at home on Thursday night.
I assume they will rest some first team players but it is a big advantage for us this Saturday. They haven't had a free midweek since early Feb!
A couple of good results tonight. Bath lost so relegated, and Hornchurch drew with Chelmsford.
