Dorking Wandering
The Dorking Wanderers FC Fans Forum
Just over a month left in the 25/26 season, I thought it would be interesting to see our run-in and how it compares to the other teams who you can consider in the title race. I would say the title race goes down to Chelmsford in 10th (considering their 2 games in hand) which is interesting when comparing to the same stage last year.
Last season was considered a wide open title race with 6 teams capable of winning the league going in to the last game of the season. At this point last year, after 38 games, eventual champions Truro had 73 points, which is 1 point less than what we are currently on (74). The team in 10th place last season at this point (Farnborough) had 53 points which is considerably less than Chelmsford this season who currently have 60 points having played 2 games fewer.
In general, the gap from top to bottom is much narrower than last season. Bottom team Eastbourne currently have 31 points, just 6 points off safety. While last year, Aveley had 24 points at this point and were 14 points off safety.
Truro went on to finish on 89 points, winning on goal difference from Torquay. This means Truro picked up 16 points from their last 8 games, while runners-up Torquay picked up 21 points in that period.
As a result, I would expect the required final points to be slightly less than last year so we may only need 12-14 points from here to get the job done.
Looking at the remaining games, we have the second hardest run-in on paper, looking at purely average position of the fixtures:
| Club | Pts | Avg Pos | ||||||||||
| Dorking | 74 | Maidenhead (A) | Torquay (A) | Hemel (H) | Horsham (A) | Worthing (H) | Totton (A) | Bath (H) | Weston (A) | 9.8 | ||
| Hornchurch | 66 | Hemel (H) | Chesham (A) | Farnborough (A) | Dagenham (H) | Maidstone (A) | Ebbsfleet (H) | Chelmsford (H) | Chippenham (A) | Maidenhead (H) | 11 | |
| Worthing | 65 | Totton (A) | Weston (A) | Enfield (A) | Eastbourne (H) | Dorking (A) | Dagenham (H) | Maidstone (A) | Ebbsfleet (H) | 11.7 | ||
| Ebbsfleet | 65 | Weston (H) | Slough (H) | Tonbridge (A) | Dover (H) | Hornchurch (A) | Hampton (H) | Worthing (A) | 11.4 | |||
| Torquay | 64 | Dagenham (A) | Dorking (H) | Horsham (H) | Weston (A) | Bath (H) | Slough (A) | Hemel (H) | Tonbridge (A) | 10.5 | ||
| Hemel | 64 | Hornchurch (A) | Bath (A) | Dorking (A) | Weston (A) | Chesham (H) | Enfield (A) | Eastbourne (H) | Torquay (A) | Salisbury (H) | 12.8 | |
| Maidenhead | 62 | Dorking (H) | Weston (H) | Bath (H) | Slough (A) | Hampton (H) | Chelmsford (A) | Dover (H) | Hornchurch (A) | 11.8 | ||
| Maidstone | 61 | Chesham (A) | Totton (H) | Dover (A) | Hornchurch (H) | Horsham (A) | Worthing (H) | Bath (A) | 11.7 | |||
| Weston | 60 | Ebbsfleet (A) | Worthing (H) | Maidenhead (A) | Hemel (H) | Torquay (H) | Salisbury (A) | Enfield (H) | Horsham (H) | Dagenham (A) | Dorking (H) | 9.4 |
| Chelmsford | 60 | Dover (H) | Farnborough (A) | Chippenham (A) | Totton (H) | Enfield (H) | Dagenham (A) | Maidenhead (H) | Hornchurch (A) | Chesham (A) | Eastbourne (H) | 16.6 |
It's actually surprising how many of our rivals have to play eachother in the next 8-9 games with only Weston having a touger run of games than ourselves.
Chelmsford have by far the easiest run-in in terms of league position as they only have to play 3 of their rivals. That being said, teams fighting relegation can often be tougher at this time of year and fixture congestion may also be tough for them to handle.
Some interesting games on the last day of the season as well with our visit to Weston, Worthing hosting Ebbsfleet and Maidenhead travelling to Hornchurch. Hopefully we have it wrapped up by then!
Well, after tonight's results it is really tight at the top. I can't see Worthing finishing anywhere but top due to their superior goal difference.
Hornchurch dropping two points is great for us. Our last game at Weston-super-Mare is going to be a humdinger!
Yeah fantastic result in Essex tonight. Fingers crossed for Maidstone on Saturday in Elokobi’s last home game, to set up a final day cliff hanger
My brain hurts working it out but I think we might now be guaranteed playoffs? In theory 8th place Maidenhead can catch us but a few of the teams currently in playoffs have to play each other so I am not sure all those 6 teams can catch us?
My brain hurts working it out but I think we might now be guaranteed playoffs? In theory 8th place Maidenhead can catch us but a few of the teams currently in playoffs have to play each other so I am not sure all those 6 teams can catch us?
Looks like we could still miss out on goal difference
If we beat Bath and Torquay and Hornchurch both lose and Weston also drop points then we are effectively guaranteed 2nd place. An unlikely scenario but it would mean we could rest a few players against Weston next weekend for playoffs.
