Dorking Wandering
The Dorking Wanderers FC Fans Forum
Just over a month left in the 25/26 season, I thought it would be interesting to see our run-in and how it compares to the other teams who you can consider in the title race. I would say the title race goes down to Chelmsford in 10th (considering their 2 games in hand) which is interesting when comparing to the same stage last year.
Last season was considered a wide open title race with 6 teams capable of winning the league going in to the last game of the season. At this point last year, after 38 games, eventual champions Truro had 73 points, which is 1 point less than what we are currently on (74). The team in 10th place last season at this point (Farnborough) had 53 points which is considerably less than Chelmsford this season who currently have 60 points having played 2 games fewer.
In general, the gap from top to bottom is much narrower than last season. Bottom team Eastbourne currently have 31 points, just 6 points off safety. While last year, Aveley had 24 points at this point and were 14 points off safety.
Truro went on to finish on 89 points, winning on goal difference from Torquay. This means Truro picked up 16 points from their last 8 games, while runners-up Torquay picked up 21 points in that period.
As a result, I would expect the required final points to be slightly less than last year so we may only need 12-14 points from here to get the job done.
Looking at the remaining games, we have the second hardest run-in on paper, looking at purely average position of the fixtures:
| Club | Pts | Avg Pos | ||||||||||
| Dorking | 74 | Maidenhead (A) | Torquay (A) | Hemel (H) | Horsham (A) | Worthing (H) | Totton (A) | Bath (H) | Weston (A) | 9.8 | ||
| Hornchurch | 66 | Hemel (H) | Chesham (A) | Farnborough (A) | Dagenham (H) | Maidstone (A) | Ebbsfleet (H) | Chelmsford (H) | Chippenham (A) | Maidenhead (H) | 11 | |
| Worthing | 65 | Totton (A) | Weston (A) | Enfield (A) | Eastbourne (H) | Dorking (A) | Dagenham (H) | Maidstone (A) | Ebbsfleet (H) | 11.7 | ||
| Ebbsfleet | 65 | Weston (H) | Slough (H) | Tonbridge (A) | Dover (H) | Hornchurch (A) | Hampton (H) | Worthing (A) | 11.4 | |||
| Torquay | 64 | Dagenham (A) | Dorking (H) | Horsham (H) | Weston (A) | Bath (H) | Slough (A) | Hemel (H) | Tonbridge (A) | 10.5 | ||
| Hemel | 64 | Hornchurch (A) | Bath (A) | Dorking (A) | Weston (A) | Chesham (H) | Enfield (A) | Eastbourne (H) | Torquay (A) | Salisbury (H) | 12.8 | |
| Maidenhead | 62 | Dorking (H) | Weston (H) | Bath (H) | Slough (A) | Hampton (H) | Chelmsford (A) | Dover (H) | Hornchurch (A) | 11.8 | ||
| Maidstone | 61 | Chesham (A) | Totton (H) | Dover (A) | Hornchurch (H) | Horsham (A) | Worthing (H) | Bath (A) | 11.7 | |||
| Weston | 60 | Ebbsfleet (A) | Worthing (H) | Maidenhead (A) | Hemel (H) | Torquay (H) | Salisbury (A) | Enfield (H) | Horsham (H) | Dagenham (A) | Dorking (H) | 9.4 |
| Chelmsford | 60 | Dover (H) | Farnborough (A) | Chippenham (A) | Totton (H) | Enfield (H) | Dagenham (A) | Maidenhead (H) | Hornchurch (A) | Chesham (A) | Eastbourne (H) | 16.6 |
It's actually surprising how many of our rivals have to play eachother in the next 8-9 games with only Weston having a touger run of games than ourselves.
Chelmsford have by far the easiest run-in in terms of league position as they only have to play 3 of their rivals. That being said, teams fighting relegation can often be tougher at this time of year and fixture congestion may also be tough for them to handle.
Some interesting games on the last day of the season as well with our visit to Weston, Worthing hosting Ebbsfleet and Maidenhead travelling to Hornchurch. Hopefully we have it wrapped up by then!
Chelmsford have sacked their manager Angelo Harrop - 4 points off the playoffs with a game in hand
Bizarre - I thought they were one of the best teams we have seen at Meadowbank and as you say - doing pretty well.
@baggy They have spent a fair bit and went into the season with high expectations but the timing of it all does seem odd.
Seen a lot of their fans on X have been calling for the managers head for the last few weeks. Funny they went into the game with us and had people predicting they’d challenge for the top 3
Just shows, if you’re going to manage a club it’s best to own it too 😀
Terrible result today especially with both Hornchurch and Worthing winning. Title race well open now. Feel these are our main two challengers now. Hornchurch only 5 points behind with game in hand, and Worthing could go top of they win on Monday. Game we can't afford to lose. Hornchurch are away at Maidstone that day.
Vital we get at least a draw against Worthing tomorrow. If they win, they go top and new favourites as 2 of their last 3 are at home . We also need Maidstone to do us a favour and get at least a draw against Hornchurch as the latter are only 5 points behind, have a game in hand, and 3 out of their last four at home.
Think it is between us, Worthing and Hornchurch now and would not be surprised if these clubs finished top 3. Vital we do not lose tomorrow, or will no longer be in our hands.
So feel Worthing are slight favourites now. At least Hornchurch lost too. Have to put in everything into last 3 games and hope we get more points than our rivals.
If we have to settle for playoffs, need to aim for second and home advantage. The team in form also does well in playoffs, so need to start winning again starting at Totten. Two more wins will guarantee a top 3 finish.
Incredibly, 11th placed Chelmsford City can still win the league with just 3 games to go!
Also, despite sitting 2nd on goal difference, we are still not guaranteed playoffs...
Not being funny here but Chippenham beat Totton at the weekend, there would have to be something seriously wrong for us to lose to them.
"Why would I leave to join a League Two club? We're going there anyway!" - Marc White
Not being funny here but Chippenham beat Totton at the weekend, there would have to be something seriously wrong for us to lose to them.
Chippenham were fighting for their lives though, and Totton are much better at home (8th in home table). We will need to be at our best to beat them, and that is what we need to do.
Incredibly, 11th placed Chelmsford City can still win the league with just 3 games to go!
Also, despite sitting 2nd on goal difference, we are still not guaranteed playoffs...
Its a great league to follow albeit frustrating at times as well.
Unfortunately, can't see us winning the title now. Worthing's to lose. One more win and we can't catch them. Really need to step up in next two games or can see us finishing outside top 3. Hornchurch can now overtake us with their game in hand.
I honestly think that we should forget about promotion this year. Our squad is not good enough, too reliant on loan players and geriatrics. Far better to build from within, with OLBG'S help and look to the following year. I really don't want to go into the National League just to come crashing straight back down.
