Dorking Wandering
The Dorking Wanderers FC Fans Forum
Just over a month left in the 25/26 season, I thought it would be interesting to see our run-in and how it compares to the other teams who you can consider in the title race. I would say the title race goes down to Chelmsford in 10th (considering their 2 games in hand) which is interesting when comparing to the same stage last year.
Last season was considered a wide open title race with 6 teams capable of winning the league going in to the last game of the season. At this point last year, after 38 games, eventual champions Truro had 73 points, which is 1 point less than what we are currently on (74). The team in 10th place last season at this point (Farnborough) had 53 points which is considerably less than Chelmsford this season who currently have 60 points having played 2 games fewer.
In general, the gap from top to bottom is much narrower than last season. Bottom team Eastbourne currently have 31 points, just 6 points off safety. While last year, Aveley had 24 points at this point and were 14 points off safety.
Truro went on to finish on 89 points, winning on goal difference from Torquay. This means Truro picked up 16 points from their last 8 games, while runners-up Torquay picked up 21 points in that period.
As a result, I would expect the required final points to be slightly less than last year so we may only need 12-14 points from here to get the job done.
Looking at the remaining games, we have the second hardest run-in on paper, looking at purely average position of the fixtures:
| Club | Pts | Avg Pos | ||||||||||
| Dorking | 74 | Maidenhead (A) | Torquay (A) | Hemel (H) | Horsham (A) | Worthing (H) | Totton (A) | Bath (H) | Weston (A) | 9.8 | ||
| Hornchurch | 66 | Hemel (H) | Chesham (A) | Farnborough (A) | Dagenham (H) | Maidstone (A) | Ebbsfleet (H) | Chelmsford (H) | Chippenham (A) | Maidenhead (H) | 11 | |
| Worthing | 65 | Totton (A) | Weston (A) | Enfield (A) | Eastbourne (H) | Dorking (A) | Dagenham (H) | Maidstone (A) | Ebbsfleet (H) | 11.7 | ||
| Ebbsfleet | 65 | Weston (H) | Slough (H) | Tonbridge (A) | Dover (H) | Hornchurch (A) | Hampton (H) | Worthing (A) | 11.4 | |||
| Torquay | 64 | Dagenham (A) | Dorking (H) | Horsham (H) | Weston (A) | Bath (H) | Slough (A) | Hemel (H) | Tonbridge (A) | 10.5 | ||
| Hemel | 64 | Hornchurch (A) | Bath (A) | Dorking (A) | Weston (A) | Chesham (H) | Enfield (A) | Eastbourne (H) | Torquay (A) | Salisbury (H) | 12.8 | |
| Maidenhead | 62 | Dorking (H) | Weston (H) | Bath (H) | Slough (A) | Hampton (H) | Chelmsford (A) | Dover (H) | Hornchurch (A) | 11.8 | ||
| Maidstone | 61 | Chesham (A) | Totton (H) | Dover (A) | Hornchurch (H) | Horsham (A) | Worthing (H) | Bath (A) | 11.7 | |||
| Weston | 60 | Ebbsfleet (A) | Worthing (H) | Maidenhead (A) | Hemel (H) | Torquay (H) | Salisbury (A) | Enfield (H) | Horsham (H) | Dagenham (A) | Dorking (H) | 9.4 |
| Chelmsford | 60 | Dover (H) | Farnborough (A) | Chippenham (A) | Totton (H) | Enfield (H) | Dagenham (A) | Maidenhead (H) | Hornchurch (A) | Chesham (A) | Eastbourne (H) | 16.6 |
It's actually surprising how many of our rivals have to play eachother in the next 8-9 games with only Weston having a touger run of games than ourselves.
Chelmsford have by far the easiest run-in in terms of league position as they only have to play 3 of their rivals. That being said, teams fighting relegation can often be tougher at this time of year and fixture congestion may also be tough for them to handle.
Some interesting games on the last day of the season as well with our visit to Weston, Worthing hosting Ebbsfleet and Maidenhead travelling to Hornchurch. Hopefully we have it wrapped up by then!
If we can come out of the Bank Hol games still clear at the top, even only by a point, I'd be very confident
I think that two more wins might in the end prove enough, especially if one of them is against Worthing. If we take two points a game as the general average, then 84 points would do it. So a win at Horsham would be immense; Bath at home should be 3 points, with opportunities for extra insurance vs Worthing and Totton, to make the Weston game hopefully a dead rubber. Having said that, our record at Horsham is not great....
To quote the attached online post, it seems Worthing 'scumbags' have been making a nuisance of themselves...
"Why would I leave to join a League Two club? We're going there anyway!" - Marc White
I think that two more wins might in the end prove enough, especially if one of them is against Worthing. If we take two points a game as the general average, then 84 points would do it. So a win at Horsham would be immense; Bath at home should be 3 points, with opportunities for extra insurance vs Worthing and Totton, to make the Weston game hopefully a dead rubber. Having said that, our record at Horsham is not great....
Then again Horsham's record on their ground this season is not great either!
@dorking-eagle Yeah I saw a few posts from Enfield fans saying how bad they were inside and out the ground. I’m surprised the club haven’t acted and weeded the out yet. I’m sure they will be in attendance at Meadowbank next week amongst the 600 away fans
If they have sold 600 let them have the fanzone to themselves then there should be no issues.
"Why would I leave to join a League Two club? We're going there anyway!" - Marc White
@dorking-eagle Easy enough to sort by the clubs concerned - there's CCTV everywhere, so just review that, and ban those involved.
That said, wouldn't want to go too hard on it, esp if it's only drinking too much and getting a litte rowdy - we need younger fans at this level and it's great so many now attend.
@gary-munnery Can't see there being any issues tbh - we segregate well, and there will be a few police (and stewards) on duty.
No doubt there will be some flash points in the town however, but not a lot the club can do about that, and again, I'm sure there will be a fairly heavy police presence outside too.
3 more wins would put us on 87 which would be a tough ask for those chasing us, meaning they’d have to win in basically.
Any danger of McCallum being recalled? Eastleigh are in freefall and have been dragged into a relegation battle.
Thought I would do an updated run-in look with 5 games to go. I've included down to Chelmsford due to their 2 games in hand although I haven't included Maidenhead or Maidstone this time.
| Team | Pts | Avg Pos | |||||||
| Dorking Wanderers | 78 | Horsham (A) | Worthing (H) | Totton (A) | Bath City (H) | Weston (A) | 12.2 | ||
| Worthing | 72 | Eastbourne (H) | Dorking (A) | Dagenham (H) | Maidstone (A) | Ebbsfleet (H) | 10.4 | ||
| Hornchurch | 70 | Dagenham (H) | Maidstone (A) | Ebbsfleet (H) | Chelmsford (H) | Chippenham (A) | Maidenhead (H) | 11 | |
| Hemel Hempstead | 70 | Weston (A) | Chesham (H) | Enfield (A) | Eastbourne (H) | Torquay (A) | Salisbury (H) | 14.5 | |
| Torquay United | 68 | Weston (A) | Bath City (H) | Slough (A) | Hemel (H) | Tonbridge (A) | 12.6 | ||
| Ebbsfleet United | 68 | Tonbridge (A) | Dover (H) | Hornchurch (A) | Hampton (H) | Worthing (A) | 10.8 | ||
| Weston-super-Mare | 66 | Hemel (H) | Torquay (H) | Salisbury (A) | Enfield (H) | Horsham (H) | Dagenham (A) | Dorking (H) | 11 |
| Chelmsford City | 63 | Totton (H) | Enfield (H) | Dagenham (A) | Maidenhead (H) | Hornchurch (A) | Chesham (A) | Eastbourne (H) | 13.4 |
We went from having the 2nd hardest run-in to the 5th hardest after getting Maidenhead, Torquay and Hemel out of the way. Hemel and Chelmsford have the easiest runs on paper but fixture congestion might play a part for Chelmsford.
Worthing now have the hardest run-in as they have to play ourselves, Dagenham, Maidstone and Ebbsfleet in their final 5 games.
Either Hemel or Weston or both are guaranteed to drop points this midweek with them playing eachother tomorrow night.
Theoretically, we could win the title on Easter Monday against Worthing if all results went our way, but Totton or Bath are more likely dates.
A 1-1 draw for Chelmsford against Totton last night leaves them 14 points behind us, albeit still with 1 game in hand. The most points they can achieve is 82 which just about keeps them in the hunt but looks unlikely for them now.
They still have to visit Dagenham, Hornchurch and Chesham, as well as host Maidenhead.
I would expect we can rule out Torquay and Ebbsfleet too soon. They can get a maximum of 83, but both still need to play 2 teams in the playoffs.
Good result for us tonight as Weston and Hemel draw. Maidenhead win and move to 5th. However, as they are 10 points behind with 5 to play, I don't think they will catch us.
@crawleysth Good comeback win for Chesham. Got to say for a club of their size and budget they have impressed me this season.
That defeat for Bath means they could very well be relegated before we face them at home in a few weeks time. They also have a midweek game a few days before we face them.
Eastbourne could be relegated this Friday if they lose to Worthing and Farnborough get at least a point away at Hampton.
Should also add that Totton are now mathematically safe from relegation and are unlikely to make playoffs which is ideal for when we play them next weekend.
