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The Run-In - Fixtur...
 
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The Run-In - Fixture Analysis

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TomCalvert
(@calvertskans)
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I think we can safely say that the final 3 relegation spots will be any 3 of the current bottom 5 teams (not counting Oxford) - Dorking, Kiddy, Boreham Wood, Wealdstone, York. If any of Ebbsfleet, Maidenhead, Woking, Fylde lose their remaining games then there is a chance they could get dragged in to it but I doubt it.

These are the remaining fixtures for each club:

Date Dorking (44) Kidderminster (46) Boreham Wood (47) Wealdstone (47) York City (50)
Tues 9th     Rochdale (A) Southend (H)  
Thurs 11th Wealdstone (A)     Dorking (H)  
Sat 13th Rochdale (A) Eastleigh (H) Aldershot (A) Chesterfield (H) Woking (H)
Tues 16th       Eastleigh (H)  
Sat 20th Hartlepool (H) Barnet (A) Ebbsfleet (H) Oldham (A) Solihull (A)

I wouldn't say any club has an "easy" run-in but statistically we have the easiest at an average league position of 14.3. Kidderminster have the hardest at 8th.

Boreham Wood look to have a tricky few games to me; it just depends how up for it Rochdale will be as they are one of the few teams not playing for anything at this stage really. Aldershot away will be though as they need to win to keep in the playoff hunt and Ebbsfleet are one of the form teams in the league at the moment. I don't see them getting much more than 4 points from those 3 games.

Kidderminster have the hardest run in in terms of league position but I actually think that Eastleigh home game is very winnable for them. Barnet away will obviously be tough but they may have already secured 2nd place by then and able to rest players for the playoffs. Again, I think 4 points is a realistic amount for them as a maximum.

Wealdstone have the unenviable task of playing 5 games in 11 days which you imagine will really hurt them as a part time side, although 4 of those games being at home is a big help for them. Will they sacrifice the Southend game to have a bigger go against us considering we are their direct relegation rivals? Chesterfield already appear to be on the beach a little bit but are chasing that 100 point total. Eastleigh at home again looks winnable but a playoff chasing Oldham might be tough on the last day of the season. The max I can see them getting is 5 points.

York City are likely safe in my opinion but I think they are capable of losing both those games, especially as they picked up a couple of suspensions yesterday. However, Woking will feel they are safe now and might lose a bit of edge so I would expect York to beat them at home. Solihull away will be though though as they are still fighting for a playoff place. 3 points expected from those 2 games which should see them survive.

That just leaves Dorking - I think the games at Wealdstone and Hartlepool should be wins but it is that short turnaround at Rochdale that really worries me. Although technically it isn't much different to playing Saturday and then a Bank Holiday Monday, I think it will be a big ask at this stage of the season with the injuries we have. If the Prior injury rules him out for more than the Wealdstone game then I think we will be down. That being said, I can see us gettin 7 points max from these games.

If everyone picks up there max points total then that leaves the final points tally as:

19th - York City - 53 pts

20th - Wealdstone - 52 pts

21st - Boreham Wood - 51 pts

22nd - Dorking - 51 pts

23rd - Kiddy - 50 pts

 

I think the big question here is Wealdstone, can they get 5 points from those 5 games with such short turnarounds? If they lose on Tuesday against Southend then I can maybe see Wealdstone and Boreham Wood swapping places.

Am I being too harsh on Eastleigh calling them a comfortable win for every side? Will Rochdale be more up for it than I am expecting?

One thing that I do expect is 9 points from Dorking should keep them up.


   
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(@crawleysth)
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Great analysis Tom, and agree with most of your comments . I too think we need to get at least 7 points, probably 9 to stay up. This means scoring one, probably 2 goals per game which is a big ask for a team that can't score goals, and have no fully fit striker.

We need a) both games Tuesday to go our way and b) to win on Thursday, and then review situation.

 


   
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TomCalvert
(@calvertskans)
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Wealdstone have sacked their manager! How will this impact them??


   
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Dorking Eagle
(@dorking-eagle)
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They have got rid of their manager AND their assistant manager lol and appointed their coach to run the team for the last 5 games

Most odd at a critical time

Even though Boreham Wood are parting ways with Luke Garrard he is staying in place for the rest of the season

I hope they completely fall to pieces

"Why would I leave to join a League Two club? We're going there anyway!" - Marc White


   
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Dorking Eagle
(@dorking-eagle)
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The other potential twist is the weather! 

Wealdstone's pitch is awful when it rains and there's plenty forecast on Tues-Wed-Thurs

Every chance the game on Thursday could be off and then it goes to Thursday of the last week of the season!

"Why would I leave to join a League Two club? We're going there anyway!" - Marc White


   
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TomCalvert
(@calvertskans)
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@dorking-eagle I'm sure it will be fine but playing Thurs/Sat next week will definitely be preferable as we are at home on the Sat.

Gives Prior/Pybus an extra week to recover as well.


   
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Gary Pascoe
(@happy-hammers)
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Tom you need to get out more. 😂😉


   
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TomCalvert
(@calvertskans)
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Topic starter  

@happy-hammers Cheers Gary 👍


   
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(@crawleysth)
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Posted by: @dorking-eagle

The other potential twist is the weather! 

Wealdstone's pitch is awful when it rains and there's plenty forecast on Tues-Wed-Thurs

Every chance the game on Thursday could be off and then it goes to Thursday of the last week of the season!

If the Southend game is postponed, could they move our game to another venue, if likely to be postponed? Other clubs like Potters Bar and Taunton/Truro are having to do this. Plymouth Parkway have 9 fixtures in 18 days and playing 3 games a week to the end of the season!

 

 


   
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(@crawleysth)
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I also note that Truro are playing Mon, Weds, Thurs, Sat this week and Tues, Thurs, Sat next week to play all their games. Imagine what Klopp or Guardiola would have to say if Liverpool or Man City had this schedule, and these guys are part-time and have a small squad.


   
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AdeB
 AdeB
(@adeb)
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@crawleysth Exactly. PL managers (and others) infuriate me when they moan about fixture 'congestion' - i.e. having to play the odd midweek game and take part in some cup competitions 🤬


   
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Dorking Eagle
(@dorking-eagle)
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Posted by: @crawleysth

Posted by: @dorking-eagle

The other potential twist is the weather! 

Wealdstone's pitch is awful when it rains and there's plenty forecast on Tues-Wed-Thurs

Every chance the game on Thursday could be off and then it goes to Thursday of the last week of the season!

If the Southend game is postponed, could they move our game to another venue, if likely to be postponed? Other clubs like Potters Bar and Taunton/Truro are having to do this. Plymouth Parkway have 9 fixtures in 18 days and playing 3 games a week to the end of the season!

 

 

 

I doubt it'd get moved to another venue if it was postponed, think it'd just get shifted to the Thursday on the final midweek

 

 

"Why would I leave to join a League Two club? We're going there anyway!" - Marc White


   
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(@crawleysth)
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I was more thinking if the Southend game was postponed and moved to Thurs 18th. They would then not have a slot for our game if pitch unplayable Thursday, unless they changed venue. However, weather does not look too bad for Tuesday, so hopefully that game will go ahead.


   
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TomCalvert
(@calvertskans)
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Topic starter  

Somewhat off topic but Walton and Hersham have just sacked their manager, Scott Harris. Seems an insane decision to me considering they have had 3 promotions in a row and currently sit 2 spots off the playoffs.

However, Marc has mentioned in videos before about recruiting them so I wonder if we might see them come in in a coaching role next season?


   
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Gary Pascoe
(@happy-hammers)
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@calvertskans that's unbelievable mate, he has done such a great job.

Only problem is any decent coach wouldn't put up with Marc's interfering and not having any input. 

Marc needs to learn from this season and have people who he will listen to and not be so stubborn. 


   
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