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Projected points over the next few weeks?

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TomCalvert
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We actually have a half-decent run of fixtures over these next few weeks so you have to feel this is an important part of the season considering our position in the table. Our last 10 games of the season are really tough though as only Maidenhead(A) and Hartlepool(H) sit in the bottom half of the table from those fixtures...

However, from now until March we only play 1 team currently sitting in the playoffs (Altrincham). Gateshead and Halifax are just outside the playoffs but even those games are at home and you would hope we stand a decent chance in both.

How many points do you think we will pickup over these next 10 games? (Assuming the York away game is rescheduled for February at some point)

I'd be fairly happy with 14 points from the following although more is definitely possible:

Gateshead (H) - 1

Dagenham (A) - 1

Boreham Wood (A) - 1

Fylde (H) - 3

Altrincham (A) - 0

Halifax (H) - 1

York (A) - 0

Kidderminster (A) - 3

Wealdstone (A) - 1

Ebbsfleet (H) - 3

The home matches are really important in this run; I reckon we need at least 8/12 points from them to stay up.

If we do get 14 points from these next 10 games then it will mean we need around 10 points from the difficult March/April period to stay up. 


   
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AdeB
 AdeB
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Interesting...I'll have a go;

Gateshead (H) - 3

Dagenham (A) - 3

Boreham Wood (A) - 1

Fylde (H) - 3

Altrincham (A) - 0

Halifax (H) - 3

York (A) - 0

Kidderminster (A) - 1

Wealdstone (A) - 0

Ebbsfleet (H) - 3

 

So that gives us 17. Maybe a tad optimistic going next 4 unbeaten...


   
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TomCalvert
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Dagenham won't have played a game for 2 weeks by the time we play them on Tuesday. Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing for us...


   
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Dorking Eagle
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Wins against Dagenham (away), Fylde (home) and Kidderminster (away). Home draw with Ebbsfleet. 10pts from those 10 games.

Hope it's better than that though, a lot depends on Alfie and the service that Jason gets.

"Why would I leave to join a League Two club? We're going there anyway!" - Marc White


   
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TomCalvert
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@dorking-eagle Sadly, I don't think 10 points from these next 10 games will keep us up unfortunately ☹️


   
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(@crawleysth)
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I agree the last 10 games look very hard (playing 7 out of the top 10). As Tom says getting 8 points from the next 4 home games and 6 from the next 6 away games looks a minimum to give Dorking a chance of staying up. 


   
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AdeB
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It's kind of hard to call with regards to which fixtures might actually be tougher. Other than Chesterfield, they could all go either way, as Marc says, pretty much anyone can beat anyone in this division. That said, a run of form will sort it nicely. 

Talking of Chesterfield, I see we're advertising tickets to their fans already - I expect this one might match Woking last season in terms of record crowd/away following. Get there early!


   
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Baggy
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Agree @AdeB anyone can beat anyone so it depends on avoiding injuries and getting the confidence up, as end of last season proved.  Starting to win home games is a must - starting today hopefully! 


   
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AdeB
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Posted by: @calvertskans

Gateshead (H) - 1

Dagenham (A) - 1

Boreham Wood (A) - 1

Fylde (H) - 3

Altrincham (A) - 0

Halifax (H) - 1

York (A) - 0

Kidderminster (A) - 3

Wealdstone (A) - 1

Ebbsfleet (H) - 3

The home matches are really important in this run; I reckon we need at least 8/12 points from them to stay up.

If we do get 14 points from these next 10 games then it will mean we need around 10 points from the difficult March/April period to stay up. 

Taking a look at those games in March/April, I can see us only getting around 8 points as there are some really tricky ones to come. Might even be a case of securing safety in the final game at home to Hartlepool, which would be a hell of an occasion - but let's hope we're safe before then.

This makes next 10 even more crucial, especially the home games with Fylde and Ebbsfleet...

 


   
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(@crawleysth)
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I note only 4 points separate 12th and 20th, and all but 2 of these clubs have played the same or more than Dorking. A few wins can therefore make a big difference, and vital Dorking picks up as many as they can before the difficult run in.


   
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TomCalvert
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Well we're 1 point better off than my projected start so at least that's something. Fylde and Ebbsfleet are absolute must wins now. Ideally could do with getting something from Boreham Wood, Halifax and Kiddy as well. 


   
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(@crawleysth)
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So 6 points from the first four games, so need 8 from next 6 to meet Tom's target. Ideally need to win both home games now, and can't  afford to lose to Kidderminster or Ebbsfleet. Away form is better at moment  so maybe can pick up a few points  away.


   
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TomCalvert
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@crawleysth I was right about 6 points from the first 4 games but got every single individual game wrong lol.

Completely agree, 4 points from the next 2 home games is an absolute must. Ideally need to pick up a win or few draws in the Alty/Kiddy/York/Wealdstone run. We only have one draw since early September so that doesn't seem a likely result any time soon.


   
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TomCalvert
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How many does everyone think we need over these next 4 games then? I would say 7 is the absolute minimum required but ideally 9+

Beating Ebbsfleet and Kiddy is a must. Hopefully we can get a point or two against York and Wealdstone.


   
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Gary Pascoe
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If he plays it  very negative and goes with a 4-5-1 in the away games and be hard to beat, I think we could get a point at York, Wealdstone and Maidenhead or even nick a win  somewhere. Nothing at Kiddy or Southend or at home to Chesterfield,  a must win at home to Ebbsfleet United.

 So that's 6 points. 

This post was modified 3 weeks ago 2 times by Gary Pascoe

   
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